Politico - AFL-CIO chief will tell Alaskans that there's something "just not right" with their former governor.

Politico - The Florida governor is taking fire from both the Democratic and Republican nominees.

The day after Alaska Republicans drove their pickups and minivans to churches and elementary schools to vote for their next senator, the battle between U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Fairbanks attorney Joe Miller is stuck in an intensely close deadlock. As of Wednesday afternoon, Miller had claimed 50.9 percent of the vote with Murkowski hanging on to the rest.

Multiple polls conducted in advance of the primary election showed Miller getting squashed by 30 or 40 points, but with 100 percent of precincts reporting (and a potential pile of over 16,000 absentee ballots that will be counted starting Aug. 31), Miller has a lead of 1,668 votes that might be enough to carry him all the way to Washington, D.C.

So how did that happen? Analyzing an election as it unfolds is sort of like trying to figure out who started a food fight by cleaning the pie and mashed potatoes off the floor. But there are a mess of factors, ranging from Sarah Palin's endorsement of Miller to a groundswell of conservative values, that certainly didn't help Alaska's senior senator.

"We felt that if people knew that she wasn't going to be helpful in turning the country around, then they would go for Joe," said Miller spokesman Randy DeSoto.

Tuesday in Alaska was a banner day for social and fiscal conservatives. Gov. Sean Parnell was comfortably nominated to keep his job. Mead Treadwell, who ran for lieutenant governor on a pro-life and anti-fed platform, easily won over Fairbanks hotelier Jay Ramras. A ballot referendum to require parental notification for teen abortions, Ballot Measure 2, soared through.

Miller supporters: A 'fertile crowd'

The difference between the Miller and Murkowski supporters gathered Tuesday night to watch the returns was striking. While there didn't seem to be a single child at Murkowski headquarters in Midtown Anchorage, at the Snow Goose Restaurant downtown, sprinting 6-year-olds in Joe Miller T-shirts seemed to make up about half the group.

Wanda Sternhagen, who agreed that Miller supporters were a "fertile crowd," has 10 siblings and at 44 is herself the mother of nine. Leaning against one of her children, Sternhagen recounted a story about her 4-year-old asking her "Mama, is Lisa the bad one?" Sternhagen said she answered her child by saying, "No, darling, it's not about good and bad. Lisa has good intentions. I just believe she's misguided."

Sternhagen was joined at the Snow Goose by her mother, Anna Campbell, and her sister, Kathleen Barnes. Campbell, 77, said she supports Miller because "I liked the honestness of him," while Barnes, 38, said her support for Miller stems from the fact that his values match up with hers.

"We're supporting Joe because he represents the ideas we believe in, and we can't go (to Washington) ourselves," she said.

Palin and Murkowski's family feud

Some political observers think Murkowski's campaign misfortune stems from a political family feud between the Murkowskis and the Palins. They say Palin's endorsement of Miller actually had its roots in Frank Murkowski's refusal to appoint Palin to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated when he became governor. He appointed his daughter, Lisa, instead, and Sarah has never forgiven him, that storyline goes.

In fact, Palin went on to trounce Frank Murkowski in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary and then won the job in the general. She resigned a year ago, handing over the governor's office to Parnell, her lieutenant governor, who has now won the GOP nomination.

Lisa Murkowski has generally downplayed the political bad blood, although the two have sometimes disagreed publicly on issues -- more so as Palin has strived for more of a foothold in the national Republican scene.

Veteran Anchorage pollster and political consultant Dave Dittman said the distance between Murkowski and Miller closed much faster than most people expected. "I think it just took people by surprise," he said.

Dittman doesn't see one main defining moment in Miller's come from behind, but rather a series of events and actions that served him well in the end: "I think a whole lot of little things happened and I think they added up to something."

He ticks them off: Sarah Palin's endorsement gave him attention and credibility. The Tea Party Express took up his cause and funded the bulk of his campaign. His involvement with Ballot Measure 2, the parental notification prior to a teen-age abortion issue, resonated with Republican primary voters.

"And then Joe just campaigned hard," Dittman said.

Read the rest of this story at AlaskaDispatch.com

~Senator Lisa Murkowski Campaigning for Senator Ted Stevens in 2008

In 2006, a relatively unknown small town mayor in Alaska toppled the incumbent Republican governor in the primary. Garnering more than 50% of the vote in a three-way race, and leaving the incumbent in the dust with 19%, the political career of Sarah Palin was born. The governor that was sent packing was Frank Murkowski. He'd been Alaska's Junior Senator under Ted Stevens for decades, and decided to come home and try his hand at the governorship. It didn't work out very well. His mismanagement, pandering to the oil companies, corrupt administration, and subsequent devastating defeat would have seemed to end the Murkowski reign in Alaska - except for one little thing. Frank Murkowski had appointed his daughter, former state lawmaker Lisa Murkowski to fill the empty senate seat.

Less corrupt, less conservative, and harder-working than dear ol' dad, Lisa Murkowski appealed to the large chunk of centrist Republicans, centrist Democrats, and Independents which make up the majority of Alaska voters. Her approval ratings soared into the high 70s, and there they stayed. The Murkowski dynasty appeared poised to last another lifetime.

One of the casualties, however, of Lisa's installment to her father's senate seat was Sarah Palin. She'd been interviewed for the job, along with a handful of others, and had ultimately been rejected by Frank Murkowski, in favor of family ties. Palin was not pleased. Alaskans didn't much like the royal appointment either. A ballot measure put to voters and passed into law stripped sitting senators of the ability to make appointments to fill their own seats. It would now be left to a vote of the people via special election. Ironically, that very ballot also contained Lisa Murkowski's first legitimate run for the senate on her own merits. She won.

Fast forward to 2008. After Palin's failed VP run, rumors swirled that Sarah would exact revenge and make a run for Murkowski's senate seat when she came up for re-election in 2010. The Republican Party began to grumble. To ease fears, Sarah made nice and wrote her very first check from SarahPAC to Lisa Murkowski in the amount of $5000. But the uneasy truce was not to last.

Former Palin campaign supporter and family friend, attorney Joe Miller from Fairbanks decided he was going to be the David to take a shot at the Goliath of the Murkowski family. First came a formal endorsement from Todd Palin. Then came the formal endorsement from Sarah herself. Miller got a little bump in the polls, but not much. Then came the endorsement of the Tea Party Express, and the financial floodgates opened. In a market where $10 will buy you a radio ad, and the entire state has only 600,000 people, the torrent of money that the Tea Party brought created an instant professional campaign the likes of which Alaskan candidates seldom have. Slick ads, four-color mailers, a revamped website, campaign signs everywhere - Miller's numbers started to grow, but still lagged by well into double digits.

But in the last two weeks, things began to change. Just when it looked like the Palin endorsement wasn't working as well as expected, the final media blitz hit. Every available moment of air time on TV and radio was overtaken by Miller ads - Murkowski is a liberal! Murkowski is part of a political dynasty. She's entitled. She says one thing and does another. She's sold out for political power in D.C. She's a liberal, and also by the way, she's a liberal.

The Murkowski campaign, believing in their own numbers, her popularity with constituents, and in the reasonable nature of most Alaskans, didn't seem to think that catastrophe was nipping at their heels.

In the final 48 hours, a popular local radio host interviewed Miller and framed Murkowski as a "rabid abortionist." This in itself would have riled up the Christian conservative base, but on top of that there was an added bit of ballot bait this time around. Ballot Measure 2 stated that doctors of any girl 17 years of age or younger needed to notify her parents if she sought to have an abortion, or face felony charges. Like red meat to the wolves, Ballot Measure 2 brought out the Right to Life crowd in force. Churches devoted entire services on the Sunday before primary day to talking about why congregants should support Measure 2. Signs promoting "Alaskans for Parental Notification" showed up in their lobbies.

The beneficiaries of the voters who came out to support Measure 2 were Miller, Sean Parnell and Mead Treadwell. Parnell was Palin's Lt. Governor who assumed the seat after she resigned. Treadwell, the Lt. Governor nominee was one of the top donors to Yes on 2, with credit on the website. All three men appear to have won their respective slots on the party ticket - Parnell with the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Treadwell as the GOP's Lt. Governor candidate, and Miller officially once the absentee ballots are counted. As a measure of the issue's ability to bring out the vote, there were 10,000 votes cast just for the ballot measure alone, with no senate candidate even selected. The ones who chose a senatorial candidate while they were there anyway, presumably also numbered in the thousands.

Another mitigating factor were progressives who, trying to play political chess and overthrow Murkowski, crossed over and voted for Miller. The logic was that Miller, a far right fringe candidate, would be far easier for the Democratic candidate to beat in a head to head race with all Alaskans in the voting mix. And this may come to pass.

Scott McAdams, little known to Alaskans outside the southeast pan-handle, is a popular small town mayor. He runs the city of Sitka and has balanced budgets, focused on education, served on the school board, and has even figured out how to sell water to India. He was a deckhand on a commercial fishing boat all over the state, and is all the kinds of things that Sarah Palin said she was, before the media began to shine a flashlight in all the dark corners. He's a "real Alaskan" in the style of the politicians of old, before oil was discovered and turned a libertarian blue state reddish.

I say redd-ish because despite the meme that Alaska is ruby red, and that it's full of a bunch of Palin-style conservatives, Alaska is actually very... plum-colored. Democrats have an equal number in the state senate, and in November stand a good chance of getting a decisive majority in both the senate and the house. It has one Democratic Senator and one Republican Senator. Before Frank Murkowski and Sarah Palin, Alaska had a two-term Democratic governor. The Anchorage Assembly has a progressive majority. It's a complicated state.

McAdams who unlike Miller, is a fiscally conservative moderate Democrat, has executive experience, was born and raised in Alaska, and has worked with his hands in the fishing industry, suddenly finds himself with an incredible opportunity. One could even say that attorney and Yale Law grad Joe Miller who was born and raised "Outside" is kind of "elite," while McAdams is all about Alaska, and "real people."

And despite what they say, Alaskans do like their power in D.C. and the perks it brings home. After Palin rejected a portion of federal stimulus money for her state, there were demonstrations in the streets, and the Republican legislature eventually overturned her decision, bringing in much needed funds to assist Alaskans in rural areas to make their homes energy efficient for the winter, fix crumbling infrastructure, and a host of other things. Electing a minority party freshman on the outer fringes of conservative philosophy and who is doomed to be powerless might not sound too appealing to Alaskans who are used to the likes of Ted Stevens, The Murkowski Dynasty, and Don Young who for decades made a career by bringing home the congressional bacon.

And don't underestimate the damage that Miller has done to the Republican Party and to good will of those who actually really liked Lisa Murkowski recognizing that she actually did work hard to benefit the state, and that she wasn't... crazy. There will be many Republicans who will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Miller, and who will investigate and ultimately hop to the other side of the aisle to vote for McAdams. As we've just witnessed, all it takes is money to get the message out and bring voters to the polls. Our newest Republican candidate for Senate made that very clear.

All in all this makes for some fascinating political theater up here in the Last Frontier, and a golden opportunity for Democrats to reclaim Alaska's past and usher in a new era of moderate, hard-working sensible and centrist Democrats to guide the state to a profitable, post-oil future. Nationally, that's one more coveted chair in the Club of 100 from a very unlikely place.

In the words of a Murkowski campaign worker last night at election central in downtown Anchorage at the prospect of Senator Joe Miller, "The world as we know it is coming apart at the seams, and frankly I'm terrified."

Scott Conroy, RealClearPolitics
By Scott Conroy - August 25, 2010More Election NewsRumors of the Sarah Palin-endorsed candidate's demise have been greatly exaggerated.When the former Alaska governor placed her home-state credibility squarely on the shoulders of uber-longshot Senate challenger Joe Miller, inside-the-beltway types were once again left scratching their heads and left to wonder, "What is Palin thinking?"The Washington Post spoke for the established viewpoint on Monday when it published online under the headline "Wither Palin?" the observation that Miller "looks to be headed to a...

Scott Conroy, RealClearPolitics
By Scott Conroy - August 25, 2010More Election NewsRumors of the Sarah Palin-endorsed candidate's demise have been greatly exaggerated.When the former Alaska governor placed her home-state credibility squarely on the shoulders of uber-longshot Senate challenger Joe Miller, inside-the-beltway types were once again left scratching their heads and left to wonder, "What is Palin thinking?"The Washington Post spoke for the established viewpoint on Monday when it published online under the headline "Wither Palin?" the observation that Miller "looks to be headed to a...

On Tuesday, voters in Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma and Vermont hit the polls to determine which primary candidates would advance to the November general election.

In Florida, self-funding candidate Rick Scott rocked the state Republican Party with his fierce $39 million campaign for the GOP governor's nomination, coming out on top of state Attorney General and establishment favorite Bill McCollum.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, where Sen. John McCain's primary re-election fight put the power of incumbency to the test, the four-term Senator proved that with a $21 million investment in campaign cash and a shift to the right on policy, he could win.

Who's up and who's down after Tuesday night's primaries? Here's the rundown:

Reuters - Democrat John Hickenlooper has a substantial lead in the Colorado governor's race thanks to a third-party candidate who is splitting the Republican vote, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

Chris Matthews played hardball Tuesday with New York Republican Rick Lazio, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for governor.

In a recent controversial ad, Lazio came out against the proposed Islamic cultural center near Ground Zero, calling the Imam behind the center a “terrorist sympathizer” who called American “an accessory to 9/11.”

Matthews challenged Lazio on the ad, saying it was an overtly political ad indicative of Lazio’s poor standing in the polls against his presumed opponent, Democratic New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. And he took Lazio to task for taking Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf’s comments out of context.

Lazio repeatedly dodged Matthews’ questions, including about why the Imam attended Daniel Pearl’s funeral and said that he identified with Jewish people. Instead, Lazio accused Matthews of trying to “smear” him.

“I know your tactics, Rick,” Matthews said.

WATCH:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Florida GOP candidate Rick Scott has spent more than $50 million on his primary campaign for governor, according to campaign finance data on record with the Florida Division of Elections.

Chris Matthews played hardball Tuesday with New York Republican Rick Lazio, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for governor.

In a recent controversial ad, Lazio came out against the proposed Islamic cultural center near Ground Zero, calling the Imam behind the center a "terrorist sympathizer" who called American "an accessory to 9/11."

Matthews challenged Lazio on the ad, saying it was an overtly political ad indicative of Lazio's poor standing in the polls against his presumed opponent, Democratic New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. And he took Lazio to task for taking Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf's comments out of context.

Lazio repeatedly dodged Matthews' questions, including about why the Imam attended Daniel Pearl's funeral and said that he identified with Jewish people. Instead, Lazio accused Matthews of trying to "smear" him.

"I know your tactics, Rick," Matthews said.

WATCH:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Voters are said to be in an anti-incumbent mood this year, and Republicans are looking for conservative champions. Delaware's biggest electoral prize may go to Rep. Mike Castle, a former governor who's spent 18 years in Congress as a Republican moderate. He's running for the Senate seat Joe Biden held before becoming vice president. Castle's GOP rival is conservative activist Christine O'Donnell. Christopher Coons is the Democratic candidate.

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It was outsider's night in Florida's Republican primary for governor, with big-spending upstart Rick Scott toppling veteran insider Bill McCollum. But billionaire investor Jeff Greene lost to Rep. Kendrick Meek in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate.

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A mixed bag for millionaires in Florida.  Rick Scott won the Republican nomination for governor, defeating establishment favorite Bill McCollum.  But real estate mogul Jeff Greene fell way short in his bid for the Senate against Kendrick Meek.

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(AP/Huffington Post) Wealthy newcomer Rick Scott has won the Republican nomination for Florida governor, the Associated Press reports.

With 62% of the state's precincts reporting, Scott held 46% of the vote to Attorney General Bill McCollum's 43%. The third GOP candidate, Mike McCalister, had 10%.

Heading into the midterm election season, BMcCollum was predicted to cruise through the primary and claim the right to take on Democrat Alex Sink, Florida's Chief Financial Officer, in the state's general election. That expectation was challenged, however, when Scott made a late jump into the mix with the intention of spending massive sums of his personal wealth on his electoral pursuit.

Dropping $39 million in what has been dubbed the "50 million primary," Scott has relentlessly hammered McCollum with negative ads and vicious attacks. The former health care exec recently charged the state AG with being the "Tonya Harding of Florida politics" and in one television spot suggested voters should throw McCollum out like a baby's dirty diaper.

When asked last week in an interview with the Florida Times-Union if he would characterize some of his ads as negative, Scott said, "Absolutely not." On his campaign's messaging, the wealthy hopeful explained, "I believe that what I've tried to do is talk about who I am. I've had to defend myself and then I talk about the difference between my opponent and me."

Much of the damage control Scott's camp has been forced to conduct relates to his profession prior to stepping into the political arena. Sink summarized the controversy in a charge she leveled against the Republican hopeful earlier this summer. She characterized Scott as "someone who was forced to resign as the head of a company that pled guilty to massive amounts of systematic fraud, including 14 felonies, leading to a historic $1.7 billion fine." The nonpartisan Politifact subsequently verified the accuracy of the criticism.

The Florida Attorney General, however, struggled to keep up with Scott's pricey campaign and escape attacks on controversy surrounding his own candidacy. Some of the assaults he's had to defend have related to scandalous spending habits demonstrated by the Florida GOP as well as the recent arrest of former state party Chairman Jim Greer on charges of fraud, felony grand theft, and money laundering.

The election culminates a bitter four-month campaign marked by nasty attacks and record spending for a state primary race.

The newly-crowned Republican gubernatorial nominee faces Democratic nominee Alex Sink and independent Lawton "Bud" Chiles III in the general election.

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) -- The longtime operator of a Christian youth camp has defeated a former member of the Oklahoma Legislature to win the Republican nomination for a congressional seat in central Oklahoma.

James Lankford of Edmond beat former state Rep. Kevin Calvey of Oklahoma City in Tuesday's primary runoff in the state's 5th distirct. Lankford had also led in balloting July 27 but did not have enough votes to avoid a runoff. During the past four weeks, Lankford suggested he represents a "fresh voice" in Congress. Calvey touted his military and legislative experience, saying he had the background needed to succeed in the U.S. House.

Lankford will face Democratic nominee Billy Coyle and two independents on Nov. 2 in the race to replace incumbent Mary Fallin, who last month won the GOP's nomination for governor.

Meanwhile, in Oklahoma's 2nd district a veterinarian from Hulbert has defeated a 26-year-old rancher and doctoral candidate to win the Republican nomination for a congressional seat in eastern Oklahoma. Dr. Charles Thompson defeated Daniel Edmonds of Morris in Tuesday's primary runoff.

Thompson had also led in balloting July 27, but did not have enough votes to avoid a runoff in the six-way primary. Thompson stressed his 25 years in the military and the experience he earned starting his veterinary business from scratch, saying those accomplishments made him the more-seasoned candidate. Thompson will face current Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Boren in the Nov. 2 general election. Boren is seeking a fourth term in the 2nd District, which stretches from far northeast Oklahoma to the Red River border with Texas.

The Republican Party of Florida has scrapped plans for a pair of unity rallies intended to heal some of the wounds inflicted during the divisive gubernatorial primary between state Attorney General Bill McCollum and former health care executive Rick Scott.

If nothing else, I have to give arch-conservative, former Congressman J.D. Hayworth credit for doggedly insisting, despite all available evidence, that he is "poised to pull one of the greatest upsets in political history" in Tuesday's Arizona Senate primary.

After all, the most recent automated Rasmussen poll showed him trailing Sen. John McCain by twenty points (54% to 34%), and every public poll conducted in this race has shown McCain leading, including eight fielded since March that had McCain ahead by margins of between 5 and 45 percentage points.

This morning, Hayworth even offered NBC's Chuck Todd a theory for why the polls might be wrong:

Here's the limitation of public opinion polls. They cannot accurately gauge the turnout. Conservatives are motivated to go cast a vote for me and retire John McCain. Also on the ballot, the governor's race on the Republican side is devoid of any suspense. Several candidates dropped out. Governor Brewer has a clear march back to the nomination [and] that will suppress the moderate turnout.

Well, maybe. We'll know the answer soon enough.

But whatever the outcome, Hayworth does have a point about one thing: Pollsters often have a hard time identifying true likely voters in low turnout primary elections. That's one reason why primary polls tend to produce bigger errors compared to the actual results than general election polls.

Also, the most recent survey in this race, the Rasmussen result I cited above, is now five weeks old. No other public polls have been conducted since July.

So as tempting as those Hayworth-as-Iraqi-Information-Minister jokes may be, we should probably hold off snickering until all the votes are counted.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces a Tea Party-backed challenger, Joe Miller, in today's Republican primary.  Sarah Palin, who beat Murkowski's dad for governor in 2006, is supporting Miller.

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As Washington contemplates the fast-approaching midterms, much attention is focused on a possible Republican takeover of one or perhaps both houses of Congress. Lost amid the hullabaloo is the vast swath of governor's races across the country, where a combination of the bad economy and high unemployment rates, term-limited and unpopular incumbents, and a strong crop of challengers make it almost certain that Republicans will capture a higher rate of governor's races than their likely advances in either the House or Senate.

Coming off of Barack Obama's victory in 2008, Democrats held a commanding 29 governorships, to just 21 for Republicans. Within a year, this advantage was split to 26-24 from Obama's appointment of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano to the cabinet, and the loss of both New Jersey and Virginia, as Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell romped amid early, anti-Democratic sentiment which has since gone from a percolating simmer to an unstable boil today.

Republicans are all but a lock to snag eight new governorships. In Kansas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the outgoing regimes are brutally unpopular and Republicans have recruited particularly stout nominees while the opposing Democrats are weak second or third tier nominees. Govs. Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming all remain popular, bur their red states have thin Democratic benches, ensuring GOP takeovers. In Illinois and Iowa, Pat Quinn and Chet Culver are toast.

Democratic fortunes are in slightly less precarious shape in six other states, but their diminished strength in these blue and purple areas is no less alarming. Despite winning a landslide in 2006, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is hobbled by Ohio's roiling unemployment and behind, while Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley faces a tough rematch from former Gov. Bob Ehrlich who he had surprising trouble dispatching four years ago.

In open seats in New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin, Democrats recruited their best possible nominees, but still face problems: once- favored Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been hurt by outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson's ethics troubles and is now in a toss-up contest; former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber is knotted in a tougher-than-anticipated race with the cash-rich Chris Dudley; and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is hobbled by the immensely unpopular outgoing Gov. Jim Doyle.

Democrats' chances in Republican-held seats is a mixed bag. Despite his undistinguished Senate career, Mark Dayton should prevail in Minnesota because of his deep pockets and his opponent's extreme conservatism. California Attorney General Jerry Brown is a slight favorite over retired eBay executive Meg Whitman, but Whitman has seemingly bottomless cash reserves, making Democrats' chances unclear.

In Florida, Georgia, and Texas, Democrats face uphill Southern battles. In Florida, Alex Sink is Democrats' only remaining statewide elected official, but Florida has become increasingly Republican, while former Gov. Roy Barnes faces hurdles in retaking his old job in Georgia as a retread ousted in 2002; both are underdogs. In Texas, former Houston mayor Bill White gives Democrats' their best statewide nominee in years and Gov. Rick Perry has long inspired outright disdain for his over-the-top conservative antics, but it will take an equivalent triple bank shot for White to prevail.

As for the remaining states up this fall, Republicans will easily hold Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont; and Democrats will retain Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and New York; they are only in solid shape to take back Connecticut, Hawaii, and Minnesota, while Arizona, Maine, and Rhode Island are still developing.

Collectively, this spells out GOP gains of an aggregate of six to 10 or more seats -- a massive two year turnaround, and a more impressive rate than even the rosiest Republican House and Senate forecasts.

Importantly, Democrats' problems have little to do with poor recruitment or fundraising, as they have put up good nominees and raised money well. Rather, the most vulnerable races have unpopular incumbents and sit a host of open naturally red states. Poor timing, environment, and economy have conspired against Democratic gubernatorial nominees this year.

There are three critical areas that will be negatively impacted for Democrats by a fall gubernatorial washout. First, the loss of several governorships will either set back or stunt the growth of state party organizations which have either seen gains in recent years, such as in Ohio or Pennsylvania, or have been anticipating growth, like in Texas.

Second, this year's crop of governors will play a critical role in congressional redistricting. With Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and possibly Iowa slated to shed seats, the loss of those governorships could lead to the imposition of harsh Republican-friendly lines. In California and Illinois, Democrats have long aimed to pare down large GOP delegations, but may still be stuck with GOP-friendly maps for the next ten years.

Finally, this year's races have implications for 2012. Barack Obama was able to capture Ohio's 20 electoral votes, Virginia's 13, and Pennsylvania's 21 with assists from sitting Democratic governors with large state organizations which provided friendly terrain and manpower. Republicans governors in swing states won't prevent Obama from capturing any of them in a closer re-election campaign, but they will make these states more inhospitable on the ground, making Obama's mission more difficult.

So, while sleepy state contests might not be as sexy as marquee Senate races, they are equally if not more critical to Democrats' long term picture. As things stand, that picture is very dark.

As Washington contemplates the fast-approaching midterms, much attention is focused on a possible Republican takeover of one or perhaps both houses of Congress. Lost amid the hullabaloo is the vast swath of governor’s races across the country, where a combination of the bad economy and high unemployment rates, term-limited and unpopular incumbents, and a strong crop of challengers make it almost certain that Republicans will capture a higher rate of governor’s races than their likely advances in either the House or Senate.

Coming off of Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, Democrats held a commanding 29 governorships, to just 21 for Republicans. Within a year, this advantage was split to 26-24 from Obama’s appointment of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano to the cabinet, and the loss of both New Jersey and Virginia, as Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell romped amid early, anti-Democratic sentiment which has since gone from a percolating simmer to an unstable boil today.

Republicans are all but a lock to snag eight new governorships. In Kansas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the outgoing regimes are brutally unpopular and Republicans have recruited particularly stout nominees while the opposing Democrats are weak second or third tier nominees. Govs. Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming all remain popular, bur their red states have thin Democratic benches, ensuring GOP takeovers. In Illinois and Iowa, Pat Quinn and Chet Culver are toast.

Democratic fortunes are in slightly less precarious shape in six other states, but their diminished strength in these blue and purple areas is no less alarming. Despite winning a landslide in 2006, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is hobbled by Ohio’s roiling unemployment and behind, while Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley faces a tough rematch from former Gov. Bob Ehrlich who he had surprising trouble dispatching four years ago.

In open seats in New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin, Democrats recruited their best possible nominees, but still face problems: once- favored Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been hurt by outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson’s ethics troubles and is now in a toss-up contest; former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber is knotted in a tougher-than-anticipated race with the cash-rich Chris Dudley; and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is hobbled by the immensely unpopular outgoing Gov. Jim Doyle.

Democrats’ chances in Republican-held seats is a mixed bag. Despite his undistinguished Senate career, Mark Dayton should prevail in Minnesota because of his deep pockets and his opponent’s extreme conservatism. California Attorney General Jerry Brown is a slight favorite over retired eBay executive Meg Whitman, but Whitman has seemingly bottomless cash reserves, making Democrats’ chances unclear.

In Florida, Georgia, and Texas, Democrats face uphill Southern battles. In Florida, Alex Sink is Democrats’ only remaining statewide elected official, but Florida has become increasingly Republican, while former Gov. Roy Barnes faces hurdles in retaking his old job in Georgia as a retread ousted in 2002; both are underdogs. In Texas, former Houston mayor Bill White gives Democrats’ their best statewide nominee in years and Gov. Rick Perry has long inspired outright disdain for his over-the-top conservative antics, but it will take an equivalent triple bank shot for White to prevail.

As for the remaining states up this fall, Republicans will easily hold Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont; and Democrats will retain Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and New York; they are only in solid shape to take back Connecticut, Hawaii, and Minnesota, while Arizona, Maine, and Rhode Island are still developing.

Collectively, this spells out GOP gains of an aggregate of six to 10 or more seats — a massive two year turnaround, and a more impressive rate than even the rosiest Republican House and Senate forecasts.

Importantly, Democrats’ problems have little to do with poor recruitment or fundraising, as they have put up good nominees and raised money well. Rather, the most vulnerable races have unpopular incumbents and sit a host of open naturally red states. Poor timing, environment, and economy have conspired against Democratic gubernatorial nominees this year.

There are three critical areas that will be negatively impacted for Democrats by a fall gubernatorial washout. First, the loss of several governorships will either set back or stunt the growth of state party organizations which have either seen gains in recent years, such as in Ohio or Pennsylvania, or have been anticipating growth, like in Texas.

Second, this year’s crop of governors will play a critical role in congressional redistricting. With Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and possibly Iowa slated to shed seats, the loss of those governorships could lead to the imposition of harsh Republican-friendly lines. In California and Illinois, Democrats have long aimed to pare down large GOP delegations, but may still be stuck with GOP-friendly maps for the next ten years.

Finally, this year’s races have implications for 2012. Barack Obama was able to capture Ohio’s 20 electoral votes, Virginia’s 13, and Pennsylvania’s 21 with assists from sitting Democratic governors with large state organizations which provided friendly terrain and manpower. Republicans governors in swing states won’t prevent Obama from capturing any of them in a closer re-election campaign, but they will make these states more inhospitable on the ground, making Obama’s mission more difficult.

So, while sleepy state contests might not be as sexy as marquee Senate races, they are equally if not more critical to Democrats’ long term picture. As things stand, that picture is very dark.

Plenty of people in Illinois — not least the Democratic politicians running for office in November — would love for Rod Blagojevich to go away quickly and quietly.

No one should be optimistic about the “quietly” part. And the news keeps getting worse for “quickly” fans, too: sources close to the case say that Judge James Zagel is considering waiting until early 2011 for Blagojevich’s retrial.

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Zagel was hoping to avoid a “Christmas burden” for jurors, and would push the trial back to “January at the earliest.”

That decision may well wind up as a November burden for incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, who is trailing his Republican opponent Bill Brady in the polls. Quinn was Blago’s lieutenant governor, and assumed the executive role when his old boss was impeached. His ties to Blagojevich have been fodder for his opponent throughout the campaign, whose TV ads often refer to the state’s struggles as having taken place in “the Blagojevich/Quinn administration.”

But the January trial of the former governor will likely have a different look to it, at least at the defendant’s table. Judge Zagel suggested that Blagojevich will be offered two court-appointed attorneys to represent him.

The first time around, Blago used his campaign funds — nearly $3 million of them — to pay a team of seven lawyers. Five separate defense attorneys questioned witnesses at this summer’s trial, according to the Chicago Tribune.

In the retrial, though, where the 23 counts the jury was unable to resolve will be re-argued, Blagojevich will have to make do with just two lawyers. Because he’s out of campaign cash, his defense this time around will be funded by taxpayer dollars.

Plenty of people in Illinois -- not least the Democratic politicians running for office in November -- would love for Rod Blagojevich to go away quickly and quietly.

No one should be optimistic about the "quietly" part. And the news keeps getting worse for "quickly" fans, too: sources close to the case say that Judge James Zagel is considering waiting until early 2011 for Blagojevich's retrial.

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Zagel was hoping to avoid a "Christmas burden" for jurors, and would push the trial back to "January at the earliest."

That decision may well wind up as a November burden for incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, who is trailing his Republican opponent Bill Brady in the polls. Quinn was Blago's lieutenant governor, and assumed the executive role when his old boss was impeached. His ties to Blagojevich have been fodder for his opponent throughout the campaign, whose TV ads often refer to the state's struggles as having taken place in "the Blagojevich/Quinn administration."

But the January trial of the former governor will likely have a different look to it, at least at the defendant's table. Judge Zagel suggested that Blagojevich will be offered two court-appointed attorneys to represent him.

The first time around, Blago used his campaign funds -- nearly $3 million of them -- to pay a team of seven lawyers. Five separate defense attorneys questioned witnesses at this summer's trial, according to the Chicago Tribune.

In the retrial, though, where the 23 counts the jury was unable to resolve will be re-argued, Blagojevich will have to make do with just two lawyers. Because he's out of campaign cash, his defense this time around will be funded by taxpayer dollars.

In an interview Monday with Univision, the nation's largest Spanish-language network, Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele distanced the Republican Party from SB-1070, Arizona's controversial immigration law:

CMF: How do you say that Hispanics are relevant (important) for your party, when you just approved a law in Arizona against immigrants?

STEELE: Well, let's be clear. The actions of one state's governor is not a reflection of an entire country, nor is it a reflection of an entire political party. The governor and the people of Arizona made a decision that they thought was in their best interest, and that's the beauty of a republic, that's who we are.

CMF [Cutaway]: For Steele, the Arizona law against immigrants is not a reflection of our nation, and it is not a reflection of the Republican Party.

STEELE: We hope, now that this debate is in full bloom, level heads will prevail and that we'll reach a common sense solution with regards to immigration.

Most other national GOP figures have defended the legislation and sharply criticized the Obama administration's lawsuit against Arizona. Many Hispanic Republicans in Arizona, however, have denounced SB-1070, and Steele's comments may be an effort to live up to his pledge to increase diversity in the Republican Party.

Steele is currently facing significant criticism and backlash within the GOP for his string of gaffes, trouble recruiting donors, and struggles managing the party's money.