Since the beginning of the Republican primary process, the defining feature of the contest has been Mitt Romney, pollster Scott Rasmussen tells National Review Online. Other candidates have risen and fallen, but the former Massachusetts governor has stayed steady around 25 percent in the polls. As Rasmussen recounts the trajectory of the race, it becomes clear how furious the search for the anti-Mitt has been: “Early on, people were talking about Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee; then they turned to Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie.” Then, of course, Republicans settled for the candidates who were actually running.

The latest alternative, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, offers the same strength and the same weakness as those who came before him, Rasmussen argues. His strength? The broad swath of Republicans who yearn for a candidate other than Romney. His weakness? His untested ability to perform in the spotlight. For Santorum to succeed, he’ll need to satisfy two conditions: First, he’ll have to convince voters he can beat President Obama. Second, he’ll have to convince them he can bring change to the White House. The reason Romney has failed to close the deal so far, Rasmussen contends, is that, though Republicans believe he satisfies the first condition, “some aren’t so sure about the second part.” “People want to shake up the political class in Washington,” Rasmussen says. “Some think Mitt is just part of it and wants to run it better.”

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The Truth-o-Meter says: False | Jon Huntsman says President Barack Obama threw deficit reduction plan 'in the garbage can'

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman suggested President Barack Obama damaged trust in the executive branch by ignoring a 2010 bipartisan proposal to chop the deficit. Huntsman, a Republican candidate for president, made the claim at an NBC-Facebook debate in Concord, N.H., on Jan. 8, 2012. "When the American people look at the political process play out, they hear all the spinning and all the doctrinaire language, and they still walk away with the belief that they're not being represented in Congress, that there's no trust in the executive branch," he said. "And the ...

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A person familiar with the situation said a casino mogul with ties to Newt Gingrich made the contribution Friday to Winning Our Future. The person said the Las Vegas billionaire would spend heavily to assist whichever candidate wins the Republican nomination.

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Over a 24-hour period in New Hampshire I observed firsthand what modern "retail politics" looks like: a Gingrich sponsored Town Hall in Littleton, a Santorum sporting store walk-through in Jaffrey and a Ron Paul mega-rally in Nashua.

In the first two cases the majority of attendees seemed to be press, lending the events a surreal emptiness - a building full of reporters from around the world listening to a candidate speechify about his love for the Granite State. In Littleton, Gingrich appeared to be going through the motions, repeating his now oft-cited promise to challenge Obama to a series of Lincoln-Douglas debates with the identical cadence and language he was using a month ago in Iowa. He charged that Obama's campaign motto should be changed from "We can't wait" to "We can't wait...to shred the U.S. Constitution." But, tellingly, the crowd of supporters was small enough that he had enough time to individually speak with every one of them following the speech.

The press/supporter ratio was even more unbalanced at Pelletier's Sports Shop in Jaffrey, a hamlet in southwest New Hampshire, where Rick Santorum waded through a throng of reporters while talking gun rights.

"The Second Amendment is there to protect the first!" he asserted, trying to establish himself as the "values" candidate in the race. Yet, it was genuinely difficult to find an actual Santorum supporter amid the excitement. Even Charles Pelletier, the 64 year-old owner of the store hosting the event, told me that he was undecided.

Indecision was not a factor at the Ron Paul "welcome rally" yesterday in southern New Hampshire. About 650 people filled a hanger at the Nashua Airport. (One twitter follower, doubting my estimate, told me I "must have dropped a zero.") Paul was introduced by his son, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, and delivered a terse 15-minute speech to the enthusiastic crowd.

Demographically speaking, the crowd contrasted starkly to those with whom I'd spoken at the Gingrich and Santorum events. Entirely young and mostly white, they ranged from clean-cut young coastal types - one was wearing a Columbia University sweatshirt - to those presenting a more bohemian, vaguely hipster, anti-establishment vibe.

For his part, Paul didn't bowdlerize his libertarian message, instead highlighting many of the positions that distinguish him from his Republican counterparts. He avoided mentioning Obama by name, choosing instead to excoriate government in any form. His central leitmotifs were foreign policy - "Strong national defense, mind our own business, take care of ourselves!" - and a promise to repeal the Patriot Act, which generated one of the most forceful cheers from the crowd.

Few of the supporters I spoke to identified as Republican. Most preferred Independent or Libertarian, and the "anybody but Obama" mentality common to GOP voters was markedly absent. When I pressed attendees about whom they would vote for in a hypothetical general election between Romney and Obama, neither option seemed appealing, they replied.

Said one, after languishing for a moment: "Don't make me choose."

Will Kryder has been covering politics in Washington D.C. as a researcher since 2009, and is now on the campaign trail in New Hampshire as a citizen journalist. If you would like to contribute to our coverage of Elections 2012, please contact us at www.offthebus.org.

NORTH HAVERHILL, N.H. -- Republican presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman told northern New Hampshire voters Saturday that a campaign button worn by one of his supporters says it all: "Sane People for Huntsman."

The former Utah governor said voters have been entertained by a campaign season he compared to the reality show "Survivor," but he's counting on them now to settle down and get serious.

He said voters should be asking themselves "Who actually has the background, the temperament, the vision and the ability to bring America together during a time when we need it the most?"

Huntsman skipped the Iowa caucuses last week to focus on a strong showing in New Hampshire. He lags far behind front-runner Mitt Romney in state polls, though some have shown him moving into third place.

Steve Wheeler, a postal worker from Haverhill, said he had been leaning toward Romney but was reconsidering after seeing Huntsman. Wheeler said many Republicans are focused foremost on picking the most electable candidate, but he isn't.

"I just think the strongest candidate is they guy who answers the questions right, and I think (Huntsman's) done a good job of that today," Wheeler said. He was among the many audience members who applauded loudly when Huntsman answered a question about how religion would inform his daily decision-making as president.

He pointed to the diverse backgrounds within his immediate family: "I was raised Mormon. My wife was raised Episcopalian. My kids have gone to Catholic schools. I have a Chinese daughter. I have an Indian daughter," Huntsman said.

Huntsman drew a distinction between himself and rivals Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who have emphasized faith in their campaigns. Huntsman said he would be guided by his belief in God and called himself "a good Christian" but said beyond that, "the voters want you to get the work of the people done, and that's what I'll do."

Months ago, Huntsman told his New Hampshire audiences he would win the primary. A week ago, he was casting it as a two-man race between himself and Romney. Asked if he still thought that was true Saturday, he said, "Well, we'll see. We've got a couple of days left to go. With 24-48 hours ahead of the vote, I think people generally begin coalescing around the top tier candidates."

Each of the Republican presidential candidate claims to be the true conservative — but who is? And what does that mean, anyway? Host Guy Raz looks at the state of conservatism particularly as it applies to the GOP candidates in a roundtable discussion with Dan McCarthy, editor of The American Conservative; Matthew Franck, director of the William E. and Carol G. Simon Center on Religion and the Constitution at the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, N.J.; and Yaron Brook, president and executive director of the Ayn Rand Institute.

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CONCORD, N.H. -- Rick Kaplan, producer for Saturday's ABC News/Yahoo/WMUR debate, says he doesn't "remember a debate that has as much on the line as this one."

That's quite a statement coming from Kaplan, a network veteran and former cable news president who has worked on presidential debates since 1972. But Kaplan insists that the seven Republican candidates taking the stage at 9 p.m. all have something to prove.

"There's no candidate who can skate in this one," Kaplan said. "You fight this night or you don't have another night."

"This is it," he continued. "This is do or die."

Primetime Republican debates, of which this is the 14th, have had an outsized influence on the race, with on-stage battles leading to countless tweets, blog posts and stories in a hyper-charged political news cycle. Texas Gov. Rick Perry's stumbles helped drag down strong poll numbers out of the gate; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who thrives on verbal sparring, revived a moribund campaign with debate performances in front of millions around the country.

Despite more than a dozen previous debates -- and Sunday morning's NBC/Facebook debate on the way -- Saturday night's debate is unique in that it will be the only prime-time face-off during the crucial week before between the Iowa Caucus squeaker and Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

"Votes have been cast. A candidate has dropped out," Kaplan said. "We're starting to see the field really take shape in terms of how it lines up here in New Hampshire and South Carolina."

Losing by just eight votes, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has now moved to the top tier of the Republican field and, for the first time, will appear in the middle of the stage next to long-time frontrunner Mitt Romney. So Santorum, the least covered candidate of 2011, will kick off the first debate of 2012 in a prime spot rather than off to the side. "This is Santorum's first chance in the limelight," Kaplan said.

The candidates, lining up from left to right, will be former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Gov. Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry. ABC's Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos will moderate the debate, joined by Manchester WMUR-TV anchor Josh McElveen. Kaplan said that jobs and the economy should get a significant amount of attention in the general-themed debate, along with social issues. It will air nationally on ABC, locally on WMUR, and will stream on Yahoo.

ABC scored the top-rated debate of 2011 with Stephanopoulos and Sawyer at the helm, drawing more than 7.6 million viewers. ABC can be expected to pull in political junkies and, perhaps, many viewers now just tuning into the race post-Iowa. But the network faces one hurdle in topping the December ratings: an 8 p.m. playoff game between the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints. ABC executives are probably hoping for a blowout.

RELATED: December's ABC/Yahoo Debate:

Rachel Maddow took her (mostly) fruitless quest to get a Republican presidential candidate on her show to a new level on Friday.

While fringe contenders like Buddy Roemer have eagerly sat down with the MSNBC host, Maddow has found it much harder to bag any of the more prominent hopefuls. On Friday, she took her show to the New Hampshire primaries and spent the day trying to crash different GOP events. Cameras followed her failed attempt to get into a mobbed Rick Santorum forum. Then, something even better happened: Maddow actually tried to chase Jon Huntsman down to get some face-time with him.

Before the ambush, Maddow told her producers that the Huntsman campaign had flatly rejected any kind of interview with her. "No way, no chance, never" was how she described the response.

The campaign's reluctance could be tied to a recent minor stir Maddow caused within GOP circles when a Huntsman finance director wrote an approving tweet about her.

Undaunted, Maddow went to a Huntsman speech and followed what she thought was his car. As she saw him being surrounded by a press pack, she began running towards him. Eventually, she found herself outside of the scrum, unable to get close to him.

Back in a New Hampshire studio, Maddow again pleaded with Huntsman to stop by. "I do not bite!" she said, adding, "unless you want me to."

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George Condon, National Journal
It’s bad enough that Mitt Romney doesn’t excite the conservative Republican Party base. Or that he’s often stiff and uncomfortable on the campaign trail. But now he has suffered the ultimate indignity: Being called bland and boring by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a candidate rarely accused of being Mr. Excitement.So far this has not been a fatal flaw for Romney and in fact it may be helping him maintain his front-runner standing. 

AP - There's a question that Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman loves to pop out from time to time as he campaigns across New Hampshire: "What language do you want me to answer in?"

Amidst all the fuss about President Obama's sagging poll numbers, the struggling U.S. economy, and "who's up and who's down" in the Republican presidential primary contest, American University professor Allan Lichtman has issued his "sure fire" prediction for the outcome of the November 2012 election.

Lichtman is no crystal ball gazer. His predictions are based on a formula he developed in 1981 in collaboration with a Russian geophysicist, who had previously specialized in creating models used to forecast earthquakes. Their approach was based on a thorough analysis of the forces at work in shaping the political landscape in every U.S. presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. From this examination they developed their predictive model. And since then, Lichtman has used it to correctly forecast the outcome of every election from 1984 through 2008.

Instead of looking at polling numbers which show a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society, viewing them as if they were tectonic plates whose shifting below the surface have the ability to create rumblings that can alter the political landscape. He identified 13 such indicators and calls them the "13 Keys to the Presidency."

According to Lichtman, if the incumbent party (that is, the political party that is currently in the White House) can claim eight of the "13 Keys," then they can be assured of victory in the next election. If, on the other hand, they hold seven or less, they are headed for defeat.

The "13 Keys" (with some explanatory notes) are:

1. Incumbent-party mandate: In the last congressional election, the incumbent party increased its seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

2. Nomination-contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination (as Carter faced from Senator Edward Kennedy in 1980).

3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third-party challenge (which can be seen to garner at least 5 percent of the vote -- as was the case in 1992 when Ross Perot won 19 percent, helping Clinton defeat Bush).

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not currently in a recession.

6. Long-term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth is equal to or greater than it was during the past two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest (of the magnitude of the civil rights and anti-Vietnam movements).

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal (like Watergate or the Clinton impeachment).

10. Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs (like Vietnam or the Iran hostage crisis in 1980).

11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs (such as winning World War II).

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero (much like Eisenhower in 1952 or Obama in 2008).

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero (as Reagan was in 1980).

At the end of December 2011, I hosted Lichtman on my TV show, Viewpoint, where he issued his "one year before the election" prediction. According to Lichtman, the only three "Keys" which President Obama has definitely lost, to date, are #1, #6 and #12. Democrats clearly suffered significant losses in the 2010 mid-term elections (Key #1); the economy will not recover sufficiently to mark an increase in per capita income (Key #6); and while Obama was a charismatic figure in 2008, his aura has diminished and will not be a major factor in his favor in 2012 (Key #12). That makes three "Keys" gone. In addition, there are a few that are questionable, namely: Key #10 and Key #11 --since it is not clear that killing bin Laden or the withdrawal from Iraq will be seen as "victories," or, conversely, that instability in Iraq and Afghanistan or a dreaded future terrorist attack will constitute a "foreign policy failure."

Nevertheless, this still leaves a maximum of 10 "Keys" and a minimum of eight "Keys" in the president's favor, enough for Lichtman, who has never been wrong, to confidently predict Obama's reelection in November.

To watch the segment of "Viewpoint" and hear Lichtman's full analysis click here.

Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine
When President Obama took office amid an economic crisis in 2009, the prevailing assumption was that the economy would be recovering by the time he ran for reelection, and that he’d therefore be a strong candidate to win a second term. For the last year or so, though, the economy has stubbornly failed to cooperate, and pundits began to acclimate themselves to the assumption that he’d be highly vulnerable, if not a dead man walking.

Erin McPike, RealClearPolitics
SALEM, N.H. -- Newt Gingrich came to this town on the border with Massachusetts to try out his new, sharper attack on the neighboring state's former governor, the candidate to beat in the race for the Republican presidential nomination."I am dramatically more conservative than Mitt Romney," he said to applause at Salem High School. "I am prepared to defend conservative principles; I am prepared to defend conservative appointments; and I am prepared to defend conservative policies."The subtext to Gingrich's commentary drew on Romney's identity as a...

Daily Caller - Search Google for former ESPN analyst Craig James and you’re likely to also find references to an alleged murder of five prostitutes during his school days at Southern Methodist University.

WASHINGTON -- After finishing in a near-tie with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's polling numbers edged slightly higher, nudging just over 40 percent on four tracking polls of New Hampshire released on Friday.

Although Santorum's support has risen rapidly, he remains in third place, still running well behind U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, with Romney running ahead of Paul by margins of 20 points or more on the four most recent surveys.

While more than a third of New Hampshire's voters say they have not yet settled on a candidate, Romney's position in the state remains as strong as ever.

In total, six new surveys have been conducted since Tuesday, including two new polls released on Friday night from NBC News and Marist University and the second wave of interviewing from a University of New Hampshire/WMUR poll. Romney leads Paul by wide margins on all six polls, but received more than 40 percent of the vote on the four most recent.

All six surveys also show Santorum, of Pennsylvania, rising into double digits for the first time, receiving support ranging from 11 percent to 14 percent, but still running well behind Ron Paul, whose support varied from 17 percent to 24 percent.

The chart below, featuring the HuffPost Pollster trend lines based on all public polls in New Hampshire, shows that four-fold rise in Santorum's support, from just under 3 percent in mid-December to 11.9 percent now, is the most dramatic change since the Iowa caucuses.

Nonetheless, support for Romney -- the most important number to watch over the next few days -- remains stable and perhaps slightly higher at 41.7 percent. Ron Paul, of Texas, has also shown steady progress over the last three months, rising steadily from 11 percent to 19.2 percent since October. Paul's support varied considerably on the six new polls, but showed no signs of fading.

Meanwhile, support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has clicked down roughly four percentage points, from 12.5 percent to 8.2 percent on the Pollster chart since Iowa. A continuing Gingrich decline could aid Santorum, but it is hard to see him rising much beyond 20 percent if support for Romney and Paul remains stable.

That said, the WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll includes a bit of a warning: More than a third of the likely Republican primary voters (37 percent) say they are "still trying to decide" who to vote for, while 26 percent report they are leaning to a candidate and only 37 percent say they have definitely decided.

While the still-trying-to-decide number has fallen significantly, from 59 percent in November, it stands as a reminder: This is the New Hampshire primary, where the last weekend of campaigning can matter a great deal. Mitt Romney has reason to be confident, but with two major televised debates scheduled for Saturday and Sunday, surprises may remain.

AP - Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum called Friday for immediate cuts to Social Security benefits, risking the wrath of older voters and countless others who balk at changes to the entitlement program.

AP - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney warned his supporters Friday not to rest just because polls show he has a commanding lead with those planning to vote in New Hampshire's primary next week.

GREENSBORO, N.C. — The federal judge set to preside over the upcoming trial of John Edwards met behind closed doors Friday with a federal prosecutor and a lawyer for the two-time Democratic presidential candidate.

Edwards is seeking to delay the scheduled Jan. 30 start date for his trial on campaign finance charges, citing a medical condition that has not been publicly disclosed.

It is not clear what issues were discussed Friday in the judge's chambers. Edwards' lawyer declined to comment when leaving the courthouse.

The start date of the trial was moved back once after Edwards said he needed more time to prepare his defense and attend his daughter's wedding.

Edwards appeared healthy at a pretrial hearing last month.

Another hearing is scheduled for Jan. 13.

ContributorNetwork - COMMENTARY | There is something definitely Romney-phobic about the Republican electorate. In fact, Mitt Romney has been challenged in the polls by every candidate (except former Utah governor Jon Huntsman), including undeclared contenders like businessman Donald Trump. But Romney won the Iowa Caucus, so how long before the focus of the Republican race shifts from being anti- or not-Romney to being simply not-Obama?

AP - Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum called Friday for immediate cuts to Social Security benefits, risking the wrath of older voters and countless others who balk at changes to the entitlement program.

A prominent evangelical said Friday that if Rick Santorum continues to surge in the polls and does well in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Christian leaders are planning to ask Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry to drop out and get behind the former Pennsylvania senator.

"There is real concern that [Mitt] Romney will win without having to face one concentrated effort of a conservative challenger," Richard Land, one of the most well-known Southern Baptist leaders in the nation, told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell.

"What I hear conservatives saying is we need to keep talking about this and we need to let Gingrich and Santorum and Perry continue to make their case, but at some point, earlier rather than later, we need to try to unite all of the social conservative forces around one candidate and have this great debate that so many people want to see between Romney and the non-Romney," said Land, whose official title is president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission.

"Santorum has to do the convincing. He did a lot of convincing in Iowa," Land said. "He's surging. The question is what's going to happen in New Hampshire and then what's going to happen in South Carolina."

"If in South Carolina Santorum outperforms Gingrich and outperforms Perry, then I would think that social conservative leaders could make the case, 'You know, Mr. Gingrich, you've said that Mr. Santorum is a good friend of yours. You have similar views and you've been colleagues for many years. He is running better than you are. How about joining forces with him in Florida?'" Land said. "And then saying the same thing to Perry."

"What I've heard over and over is we don't want to make the same mistake this time that we did with Huckabee in 2008. People didn't rally around Huckabee as the social conservative alternative because they didn't think he could win, until it was too late and McCain had the nomination sewn up," Land said.

Politico's Jonathan Martin reported earlier this week that evangelical leaders are holding a meeting in Texas next week to discuss how to prevent Santorum, former House Speaker Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Texas Gov. Perry from splitting the conservative vote and handing the nomination to Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

Land declined to comment on whether he is attending such a meeting.

Watch the Land interview here:

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AP - An Army reservist who spoke up for Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul while in uniform — and landed in trouble for it — is just one of the soldiers getting behind the Texas congressman's campaign.

The Truth-o-Meter says: Mostly True | Mitt Romney says U.S. income is almost 50 percent higher than in Europe

Recently on the campaign trail, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has used a talking point that favorably compares the United States to Europe. On Dec. 28, 2011, Romney sat down for a a 90-minute conversation with the Quad-City Times editorial board in Iowa. During that session, Romney said that "our income, our GDP per capita, is almost 50 percent higher than (it is for) the average European." Romney said this discrepancy demonstrates the strength of the United States’ system of free enterprise. "I don't want to see a president messing with ...

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S. McCaffrey, AP
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says he's confident GOP conservatives will "gradually coalesce" around a candidate who can deny the party's nomination to Mitt Romney.Gingrich calls himself "a Reagan conservative" and says that's the kind of nominee the GOP needs to defeat President Barack Obama.The Georgia Republican says Romney has got to show that he can "get a majority somewhere." Romney won about 25 percent of the vote in Iowa.