Simon Johnson, Bloomberg
“A modest man,” Winston Churchill supposedly quipped about Clement Attlee, his successor as prime minister, “but then he has so much to be modest about.” We should say the same about economists, particularly their ability to forecast anything in a useful and timely manner.Those predicting an imminent American economic decline have usually been no exception. This time, though, they may be on to something.
When Prophecy Fails
On December - 24 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Paul Krugman, New York Times
Back in the 1950s three social psychologists joined a cult that was predicting the imminent end of the world. Their purpose was to observe the cultists’ response when the world did not, in fact, end on schedule. What they discovered, and described in their classic book, “When Prophecy Fails,” is that the irrefutable failure of a prophecy does not cause true believers — people who have committed themselves to a belief both emotionally and by their life choices — to reconsider. On the contrary, they become even more fervent, and proselytize even...
Back in the 1950s three social psychologists joined a cult that was predicting the imminent end of the world. Their purpose was to observe the cultists’ response when the world did not, in fact, end on schedule. What they discovered, and described in their classic book, “When Prophecy Fails,” is that the irrefutable failure of a prophecy does not cause true believers — people who have committed themselves to a belief both emotionally and by their life choices — to reconsider. On the contrary, they become even more fervent, and proselytize even...
Washington Hits Rock Bottom
On December - 24 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Andrew McCarthy, National Review
When your dissolute political establishment sinks to the point of being fit for lectures from Chinese Communists on spending restraint, and from erstwhile Soviet revanchists on foreign-affairs modesty, you are at rock bottom. Welcome to Washington.Remember two summers ago, the depths of the last Beltway debacle on out-of-control borrowing that charted the course for today’s latest Beltway debacle on spending and taxes. It was then that China’s rulers blasted Uncle Santa for our “debt addiction,” our failure to observe “the commonsense...
When your dissolute political establishment sinks to the point of being fit for lectures from Chinese Communists on spending restraint, and from erstwhile Soviet revanchists on foreign-affairs modesty, you are at rock bottom. Welcome to Washington.Remember two summers ago, the depths of the last Beltway debacle on out-of-control borrowing that charted the course for today’s latest Beltway debacle on spending and taxes. It was then that China’s rulers blasted Uncle Santa for our “debt addiction,” our failure to observe “the commonsense...
Gun Restrictions Have Always Bred Black Markets
On December - 24 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
J.D. Tuccille, Reason
I doubt I ever would have gone to the black market to purchase an illegal assault weapon if it wasn't for New York's annoyingly restrictive gun control laws. Wait. Let me back up a bit. New York State passed the Sullivan Act back in 1911. The law required people to get a government permit to own or carry any weapon small enough to be concealed"”handguns, in particular. Issuing the permit would be a matter of official discretion, which is a policy continued to the present day.The motivation for passing the law was no secret. During debates leading to the ultimate...
I doubt I ever would have gone to the black market to purchase an illegal assault weapon if it wasn't for New York's annoyingly restrictive gun control laws. Wait. Let me back up a bit. New York State passed the Sullivan Act back in 1911. The law required people to get a government permit to own or carry any weapon small enough to be concealed"”handguns, in particular. Issuing the permit would be a matter of official discretion, which is a policy continued to the present day.The motivation for passing the law was no secret. During debates leading to the ultimate...
NRA’s LaPierre Continues Gun Push w/Lies
On December - 24 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Mike Lupica, NY Daily News
So now Wayne LaPierre of the National Rifle Association, who attacks the mental health system in this country even as he sounds like he needs to be in it, goes on “Meet the Press” and continues to double down on his notion that the only way to keep our schools safe is to put armed guards at the front door and the side door and in every home room in America and maybe on every school bus, too.The other day there was a terrific Daily News front page calling LaPierre, the NRA’s executive director, the “craziest man on Earth,” and he was clearly...
So now Wayne LaPierre of the National Rifle Association, who attacks the mental health system in this country even as he sounds like he needs to be in it, goes on “Meet the Press” and continues to double down on his notion that the only way to keep our schools safe is to put armed guards at the front door and the side door and in every home room in America and maybe on every school bus, too.The other day there was a terrific Daily News front page calling LaPierre, the NRA’s executive director, the “craziest man on Earth,” and he was clearly...
Troubling Questions About Benghazi
On December - 24 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Sens. McCain, Graham & Ayotte, WT
With U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice’s withdrawal from consideration for the position of secretary of state, some have assumed that Congress will now be less insistent on a full accounting of the facts surrounding the Sept. 11, 2012, terrorist attack in Benghazi that resulted in the murder of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens.This is wrong, for one simple reason: The president of the United States is ultimately responsible for the safety of Americans serving our nation overseas. Regardless of whom the president nominates for national security positions in his...
With U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice’s withdrawal from consideration for the position of secretary of state, some have assumed that Congress will now be less insistent on a full accounting of the facts surrounding the Sept. 11, 2012, terrorist attack in Benghazi that resulted in the murder of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens.This is wrong, for one simple reason: The president of the United States is ultimately responsible for the safety of Americans serving our nation overseas. Regardless of whom the president nominates for national security positions in his...
Jerry Brown’s Political Revival
On December - 23 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Alex Isenstadt, Politico
He's no kid at age 74, but California Gov. Jerry Brown has staged a comeback this year that Bill Clinton could appreciate.
He's no kid at age 74, but California Gov. Jerry Brown has staged a comeback this year that Bill Clinton could appreciate.
Susan Rice Should Not Have Caved
On December - 23 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Sophia Nelson, The Daily Beast
"Definitions belong to the definers, not the defined." "”Toni Morrison On Thursday evening, embattled U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice tweeted this:"Those of you who know me know that I'm a fighter, but not at the cost of what's right for our country."Rice leaves the Capitol after meeting with Senators on Benghazi last month. (Win McNamee / Getty Images)Immediately, thousands of retweets and responses came pouring in to her feed expressing both sadness and support for her decision to remove her name from consideration for the...
"Definitions belong to the definers, not the defined." "”Toni Morrison On Thursday evening, embattled U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice tweeted this:"Those of you who know me know that I'm a fighter, but not at the cost of what's right for our country."Rice leaves the Capitol after meeting with Senators on Benghazi last month. (Win McNamee / Getty Images)Immediately, thousands of retweets and responses came pouring in to her feed expressing both sadness and support for her decision to remove her name from consideration for the...
The Republicans’ Animal House
On December - 22 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Dana Milbank, Washington Post
On Wednesday night, senators took a break from the hard work of rescuing the nation’s finances. They summoned Daniel Day-Lewis and Steven Spielberg, ordered in popcorn and watched the movie “Lincoln.”After Thursday night’s debacle in the House — in which Speaker John Boehner had to pull his own tax bill from the floor for lack of votes — Republicans in that chamber may wish to schedule a movie night of their own. Perhaps they should consider an earlier Spielberg film: “Jurassic Park.”
On Wednesday night, senators took a break from the hard work of rescuing the nation’s finances. They summoned Daniel Day-Lewis and Steven Spielberg, ordered in popcorn and watched the movie “Lincoln.”After Thursday night’s debacle in the House — in which Speaker John Boehner had to pull his own tax bill from the floor for lack of votes — Republicans in that chamber may wish to schedule a movie night of their own. Perhaps they should consider an earlier Spielberg film: “Jurassic Park.”
The Path to Preventing Mass Violence
On December - 22 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Sen. Joe Manchin, Washington Post
In the days after the horrific tragedy in Newtown, Conn., I made it clear that I believe it is time for us to move from rhetoric to action to prevent future acts of senseless mass violence.
In the days after the horrific tragedy in Newtown, Conn., I made it clear that I believe it is time for us to move from rhetoric to action to prevent future acts of senseless mass violence.
Republicans’ Agenda of Destruction
On December - 22 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast
Let's get something straight from the start. Plan B wasn't going to lead to any deal anyway. Suppose it had gotten 218 votes last night, instead of being the epic failure that it was. Okay. That would have left Republicans at $1,000,000 on tax rates, with Obama at $400,000. That's still an extremely wide gulf, and if the GOP had to fight that hard to get to 218 on $1 million, what on earth would make anyone think there'd be votes in the GOP caucus for a compromise-on-the-compromise figure like $500,000 or $600,000? No chance.And that's just tax rates. Plan...
Let's get something straight from the start. Plan B wasn't going to lead to any deal anyway. Suppose it had gotten 218 votes last night, instead of being the epic failure that it was. Okay. That would have left Republicans at $1,000,000 on tax rates, with Obama at $400,000. That's still an extremely wide gulf, and if the GOP had to fight that hard to get to 218 on $1 million, what on earth would make anyone think there'd be votes in the GOP caucus for a compromise-on-the-compromise figure like $500,000 or $600,000? No chance.And that's just tax rates. Plan...
The NRA’s Emperor Has No Clothes
On December - 22 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Alec MacGillis, The New Republic
For two decades now, the legend of the National Rifle Association has grown in Washington. They were the most feared lobby of all, as influential and professionally run as the AARP or AIPAC but with the literal firepower behind them to enhance the aura of intimidation. They could get just about everything they wanted. Republican candidates came to their conventions to pay annual tribute: "This fine organization is sometimes called a single-issue group. That’s high praise when the single issue is freedom," said Mitt...
For two decades now, the legend of the National Rifle Association has grown in Washington. They were the most feared lobby of all, as influential and professionally run as the AARP or AIPAC but with the literal firepower behind them to enhance the aura of intimidation. They could get just about everything they wanted. Republican candidates came to their conventions to pay annual tribute: "This fine organization is sometimes called a single-issue group. That’s high praise when the single issue is freedom," said Mitt...
It’s a Mad, Mad Michigan
On December - 21 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Anna Clark, The American Prospect
Login or RegisterDonate Anna Clark December 21, 2012Right-to-work legislation was only the beginning. State Republicans have an entire docket full of legislation set to limit rights.Sure, lame-duck legislatures are bound to be a bit mad. But the session that just closed in Michigan was one for the ages. Aflush with the flurry of bills sent to the desk of Governor Rick Snyder"”not so much speaking to his opinion on their quality"”a politics-loving friend of mine in Detroit exclaimed, "It's like Christmas in "¦ well, in...
Login or RegisterDonate Anna Clark December 21, 2012Right-to-work legislation was only the beginning. State Republicans have an entire docket full of legislation set to limit rights.Sure, lame-duck legislatures are bound to be a bit mad. But the session that just closed in Michigan was one for the ages. Aflush with the flurry of bills sent to the desk of Governor Rick Snyder"”not so much speaking to his opinion on their quality"”a politics-loving friend of mine in Detroit exclaimed, "It's like Christmas in "¦ well, in...
Republicans Are Lost, Divided, and Weak
On December - 21 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Steve Benen, MSNBC
Absent-Minded Voting
On December - 21 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
George Will, Washington Post
The poet Carl Sandburg supposedly was asked by a young playwright to attend a rehearsal. Sandburg did but fell asleep. The playwright exclaimed, “How could you sleep when you knew I wanted your opinion?” Sandburg replied, “Sleep is an opinion.”So is nonvoting. Remember this as the Obama administration mounts a drive to federalize voter registration, a step toward making voting mandatory.
The poet Carl Sandburg supposedly was asked by a young playwright to attend a rehearsal. Sandburg did but fell asleep. The playwright exclaimed, “How could you sleep when you knew I wanted your opinion?” Sandburg replied, “Sleep is an opinion.”So is nonvoting. Remember this as the Obama administration mounts a drive to federalize voter registration, a step toward making voting mandatory.
Where’s Obama in the Benghazi Report?
On December - 20 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Michael Hirsh, National Journal
And so the reckoning begins. Only hours after a special task force concluded on Wednesday that "systemic failures and leadership and management deficiencies" may have contributed to the deaths of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya, the State Department's security chief and two other officials resigned.
And so the reckoning begins. Only hours after a special task force concluded on Wednesday that "systemic failures and leadership and management deficiencies" may have contributed to the deaths of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya, the State Department's security chief and two other officials resigned.
Why I Nuked My Instagram Account
On December - 19 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Mat Honan, Wired
I quit Instagram today. Not only that, I nuked my account. It's gone; deleted. Can't get it back. No more.I signed up for Instagram a month after it launched, in November of 2010. I was hooked from the giddy-up. My first photo? A pretty boring beach scene: gone now, but you can still see it above. Photos of food and beer and nights out on the town followed "“ banalities and burritos and bad photography, through Valencia hues.
I quit Instagram today. Not only that, I nuked my account. It's gone; deleted. Can't get it back. No more.I signed up for Instagram a month after it launched, in November of 2010. I was hooked from the giddy-up. My first photo? A pretty boring beach scene: gone now, but you can still see it above. Photos of food and beer and nights out on the town followed "“ banalities and burritos and bad photography, through Valencia hues.
How Big Labor Will Fight MI’s Right-to-Work Law
On December - 19 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Shikha Dalmia, Reason
It seemed to happen in a flash. A cradle of the U.S. labor movement became the 24th state to adopt right-to-work laws, when Republican Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan signed legislation last week banning mandatory union dues. The unions barely had time to muster one big protest in the state capital after the Republican-controlled Legislature approved the bills last week. Today they are preparing for a long war to recover from this huge blow to their power.Labor has two options now that its ability to extract mandatory dues from workers as a condition for employment is gone. It can fight the...
It seemed to happen in a flash. A cradle of the U.S. labor movement became the 24th state to adopt right-to-work laws, when Republican Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan signed legislation last week banning mandatory union dues. The unions barely had time to muster one big protest in the state capital after the Republican-controlled Legislature approved the bills last week. Today they are preparing for a long war to recover from this huge blow to their power.Labor has two options now that its ability to extract mandatory dues from workers as a condition for employment is gone. It can fight the...
Tim Scott’s Rise–and S.C.’s Long Journey
On December - 18 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Carl Cannon, RealClearPolitics
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's choice of freshman Congressman Tim Scott to replace Sen. Jim DeMint was a milestone along the road of racial progress so significant that it is worth pausing just to savor.A conservative freshman elected two years ago with the support of small-government Tea Party enthusiasts, Scott becomes the first African-American senator from the South since Reconstruction -- and he is now the only black Republican in either house of Congress. He's a great story, as we say in journalism, as is Nikki Randhawa Haley, the female governor whose parents are Sikh...
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's choice of freshman Congressman Tim Scott to replace Sen. Jim DeMint was a milestone along the road of racial progress so significant that it is worth pausing just to savor.A conservative freshman elected two years ago with the support of small-government Tea Party enthusiasts, Scott becomes the first African-American senator from the South since Reconstruction -- and he is now the only black Republican in either house of Congress. He's a great story, as we say in journalism, as is Nikki Randhawa Haley, the female governor whose parents are Sikh...
Obama: "These Tragedies Must End"
On December - 17 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Landler & Baker, New York Times
President Obama vowed on Sunday to “use whatever power this office holds” to stop massacres like the slaughter at the school here that shocked the nation, hinting at a fresh effort to curb the spread of guns as he declared that there was no “excuse for inaction.” In a surprisingly assertive speech at a memorial service for the 27 victims, including 20 children, Mr. Obama said the country had failed to protect its young and that its leaders could no longer sit by idly because “the politics are too hard.” While he did not...
President Obama vowed on Sunday to “use whatever power this office holds” to stop massacres like the slaughter at the school here that shocked the nation, hinting at a fresh effort to curb the spread of guns as he declared that there was no “excuse for inaction.” In a surprisingly assertive speech at a memorial service for the 27 victims, including 20 children, Mr. Obama said the country had failed to protect its young and that its leaders could no longer sit by idly because “the politics are too hard.” While he did not...
The Mainstream Media Vultures Gather
On December - 17 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Hugh Hewitt, DC Examiner
"Show up and shut up." Rabbi Harold Kushner was my guest for a PBS series on God in America, and this was his condensed version of advice for those who would comfort the grieving.It ought to circulate around the halls of American broadcast media for once again there were no boundaries the collective media would respect in the aftermath of the murders in Newtown, Conn.
"Show up and shut up." Rabbi Harold Kushner was my guest for a PBS series on God in America, and this was his condensed version of advice for those who would comfort the grieving.It ought to circulate around the halls of American broadcast media for once again there were no boundaries the collective media would respect in the aftermath of the murders in Newtown, Conn.
The Brotherhood Gave Advance Warning
On December - 17 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Peter Hessler, The New Yorker
Mysteries have surrounded the Muslim Brotherhood since its founding, in 1928. Nobody knows how many members there are, or how much money the organization receives, or where it all comes from. The chain of command is murky; the goals and the guiding philosophy are not clearly stated. The Egyptian revolution, which has rolled and lurched and staggered along for nearly two years, and which included Brothers among its original protesters, has failed to answer these basic questions. But the past year has solved one mystery: we now know how the Muslim Brotherhood behaves when it gets a taste of...
Mysteries have surrounded the Muslim Brotherhood since its founding, in 1928. Nobody knows how many members there are, or how much money the organization receives, or where it all comes from. The chain of command is murky; the goals and the guiding philosophy are not clearly stated. The Egyptian revolution, which has rolled and lurched and staggered along for nearly two years, and which included Brothers among its original protesters, has failed to answer these basic questions. But the past year has solved one mystery: we now know how the Muslim Brotherhood behaves when it gets a taste of...
Republican Unreason on Health Care
On December - 17 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
E.J. Dionne, Washington Post
WASHINGTON -- The human capacity to put passion and intense feeling over cool rationality does not surprise us when it comes to love, sex, family, friendship, certain kinds of religious commitment and even devotion to sports teams.But emotional approaches can be quite dangerous in public policy, and on no subject is irrationality as pronounced as it is in health care.Here's the difficulty: Conservatives who were once genuinely interested in finding market-based alternatives to government-provided health insurance have, since the rise of Obamacare, continued to make choices that are...
WASHINGTON -- The human capacity to put passion and intense feeling over cool rationality does not surprise us when it comes to love, sex, family, friendship, certain kinds of religious commitment and even devotion to sports teams.But emotional approaches can be quite dangerous in public policy, and on no subject is irrationality as pronounced as it is in health care.Here's the difficulty: Conservatives who were once genuinely interested in finding market-based alternatives to government-provided health insurance have, since the rise of Obamacare, continued to make choices that are...
Obama’s Year of Reckoning on Iran
On December - 17 - 2012 ADD COMMENTS
Edward Luce, Financial Times
Asked about the fiscal cliff’s impact on foreign perceptions of the US, David Rothkopf, a former Clinton official, quipped: “If Lindsay Lohan were arrested again tomorrow, how much would it change your opinion of her?” The cliff is a domestic crisis of choice rather than of necessity so it is still possible to make light of it. The same cannot be said of Barack Obama’s overseas inbox.At a moment of acute Washington navel gazing, Mr Obama faces an ominous range of uninvented threats from around the world. Whether 2013 turns out to be the year of Iran,...
Asked about the fiscal cliff’s impact on foreign perceptions of the US, David Rothkopf, a former Clinton official, quipped: “If Lindsay Lohan were arrested again tomorrow, how much would it change your opinion of her?” The cliff is a domestic crisis of choice rather than of necessity so it is still possible to make light of it. The same cannot be said of Barack Obama’s overseas inbox.At a moment of acute Washington navel gazing, Mr Obama faces an ominous range of uninvented threats from around the world. Whether 2013 turns out to be the year of Iran,...
