Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine
The Democratic euphoria, and Republican gloom, that spread in the wake of President Obama’s convention bounce abated a bit after ABC News and the Washington Post released a new poll showing Obama leading Romney by just a point among likely voters. Given that Obama’s convention bounce is certain to fade, this seems like really good news for Romney. It sort of is, but not in the way it seems.The thing I’ve been harping on for months is racial composition. Obama has held very steady support among non-white voters, so the key factor is his share of the white vote....
The Democratic euphoria, and Republican gloom, that spread in the wake of President Obama’s convention bounce abated a bit after ABC News and the Washington Post released a new poll showing Obama leading Romney by just a point among likely voters. Given that Obama’s convention bounce is certain to fade, this seems like really good news for Romney. It sort of is, but not in the way it seems.The thing I’ve been harping on for months is racial composition. Obama has held very steady support among non-white voters, so the key factor is his share of the white vote....
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