Robert Merry, Politico
This year's presidential election will hinge on what every other presidential election has hinged on"”the performance of the incumbent. It will be a referendum on President Barack Obama "” not a contest between him and his challenger, Mitt Romney.Every presidential election is largely a referendum on the incumbent or incumbent party. That's because the voters, in their collective judgment, are taking seriously their job of hiring and firing their chief executives. And they do it like any boss "”based on performance.